Gamecocks challenge Rebels in SEC affair

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/20/2010 - Oxford, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Ole Miss Rebels figure to be tested this evening by the pesky South Carolina Gamecocks in a Southeastern Conference tilt.

South Carolina is 11-6 overall this season and 2-1 in SEC play. The Gamecocks suffered an 89-79 loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday, halting a three-game win streak. They head into tonight's affair with a 1-3 mark in true road games, not exactly cause for confidence.

As for Ole Miss, it is fresh off a 71-69 overtime loss to Tennessee on the road, a true heart-breaker from a team that has now suffered defeats in two of its last three outings. The Rebels are still a tremendously impressive 13-4 overall, but that mark is overshadowed by a 1-2 conference mark. Ole Miss has clearly played its best ball at home, posting eight wins in nine opportunities.

South Carolina holds a narrow 13-12 edge in the all-time series with Ole Miss, thanks to three straight wins over the Rebels.

Devan Downey has been the leading scorer for South Carolina in six consecutive outings, and he has scored at least 29 points in four of the six contests. Downey is averaging 20.9 ppg this season, and he is dishing out 3.8 apg to go along with his 55 blocks. Brandis Raley-Ross has played all 17 games for the Gamecocks, and he checks in with 10.8 ppg. USC is generating 77.0 ppg while limiting opponents to 69.7 ppg. In the recent loss to Vanderbilt, Downey exploded for 35 points on 12-of-21 shooting from the floor. Raley-Ross and Lakeem Jackson scored 11 points apiece in that tilt, and Sam Muldrow added 10 points. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they struggled mightily at the defensive end, allowing the Commodores to shoot a stellar 61.1 percent from the field. A 40-23 rebounding deficit also hurt the cause.

Warren is the leading scorer for Ole Miss with 16.6 ppg, and the dynamic guard has dished out 59 assists to go along with 23 steals. Terrico White provides 16.2 ppg for the Rebels, who are getting solid production from Zach Graham (11.1 ppg) and Murphy Holloway (10.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg). Ole Miss is generating 82.5 ppg through 17 games while limiting opponents to 69.5 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting from the field. Ole Miss played quite well at the defensive end against Tennessee on Saturday, holding the Vols to a 35.4 percent shooting effort. Unfortunately for the Rebels, they turned the ball over 21 times and connected on just 34.4 percent of their field goal attempts. Warren tallied 19 points in defeat on 5-of-18 shooting from the floor.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.