Taking a look at the 24th Breeders' Cup

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/25/2007 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thoroughbred racing history will be made this week with the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships at Monmouth Park. This is the first time, after 23 editions, that the Breeders" Cup will be held over two days, with 11 races being offered.

Three new races are now part of the Breeders' Cup and they will be run on Friday. The eight other races are set for Saturday at this beautiful track near the Jersey shore. When the Championships began in 1984, seven races were offered and then expanded in 1999 with the addition of the Filly & Mare Turf.

The weather forecast for the weekend is a wet one. Rain is called for Friday and thunderstorms on Saturday. The main track will be sloppy and the turf course could be soft at best.

Looking at the races, let's group them into categories. There are now three races for two-year-olds, including a turf race, three events on the turf for older horses, and the remaining five races, highlighted by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

A dozen two-year-olds have been entered in the brand new $1 million Juvenile Turf at a mile. European horses would seem to have the advantage in this grass event. However, the 3-1 favorite is North America's Prussian who has won both starts. The colt broke his maiden at Saratoga and is coming off a win in a stakes at Woodbine.

Coming from Europe is Achill Island the 7-2 second pick. In his four starts he has only one win with three second place results. Achill Island has been second in both starts at one-mile.

The 9-2 third choice is Strike the Deal from England. He will be stretching out to one-mile for the first time, but will carry just 122 pounds, his lightest weight so far.

At 8-1 in the morning-line, Gio Ponti will actually drop back to a mile for this race. He has won both starts and likes to come from off the pace. Gio Ponti appears to be a good pick at a nice price.

On Saturday are the traditional races for two-year-olds. Both the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile races will at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. It is always hard to predict winners in two-year-old races. Favorites and longshots win just as often as not. Last year Street Sense won the Juvenile at 15-1 and went on to win the Kentucky Derby to break a jinx.

Indian Blessing is the 3-1 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies. She has won both starts while running on the lead. Right next to her in the five-hole will be Irish Smoke who is coming off a bad loss as the favorite in a stakes race at Keeneland. Irish Smoke runs off the pace and should rebound from her poor effort on Keeneland's all-weather surface. Cry and Catch Me is scratched from the Juvenile Fillies.

The winner of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile automatically becomes the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense became the first Juvenile champ to pull off the double and the first division champion since Spectacular Bid to win the Run for the Roses.

Champagne Stakes winner War Pass is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. He is undefeated in three starts and likes to win as the pace-setter. The 7-2 second choice is Tale of Ekati who is trained by Barclay Tagg. This colt comes from off the pace as he did in winning the Futurity at Belmont Park.

Norfolk Stakes winner Dixie Chatter has been scratched from the race, which leaves Norfolk runner-up Salute the Sarge as the top California entrant. Salute the Sarge will start from the next last post in the 12 horse field. He was also second in the Del Mar Futurity.

Kicking off the Breeders' Cup on Friday will be the the initial running of the $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint at six furlongs. Ten females have been entered with Dream Rush the 2-1 favorite. The filly has won four of six starts this year and will start from post three.

The lightly raced La Traviata is the 5-2 second choice. She has just three career starts, all this year, and has never lost. The three-year-old won the Post Deb Stakes here by five lengths.

The longshot to play is Jazzy. This 20-1 outsider has three starts in this country since coming over from South Africa. She was second at Monmouth Park in the Incredible Revenge Stakes.

The two favorites in Saturday's $2 million Sprint will break from the two inside posts. Midnight Lute, the 2-1 favorite, has the two hole and 7-2 second choice Smokey Stover is to his inside.

Midnight Lute has raced primarily in California this year at nothing shorter than seven furlongs. He has just one win in four starts in 2007. Midnight Lute is not a speed horse, which could prove to a disadvantage from his post position.

Smokey Stover is coming off a win in the Icecapade Stakes at Monmouth and has won five of six starts this year. If he takes the lead at the start he may not be caught.

Attilas Storm has been scratched from the Sprint with a left front ankle injury.

Only nine horses have been entered in the $1 million Dirt Mile, which concludes Friday's races. Discreet Cat is the 2-1 morning-line favorite from the inside post. He will be making his second start since a seventh place finish in the Dubai World Cup in March, The four-year-old was third in the Vosburgh last month at Belmont Park.

Met Mile winner Corinthian is the 7-2 second choice. However, the horse who loves Monmouth Park is Gottcha Gold. This colt won the Salvatore Mile and Iselin Handicap here. He is 8-1 in the program and will start from post six.

The three turf races on Saturday are the Filly & Mare Turf, Mile and Turf. European horses are always a good bet to win any of the grass events.

Nashoba's Key is the 3-1 favorite for the Filly & Mare Turf. The four-year-old made her racing debut in January and is perfect in seven starts. Three of her wins have been on all-weather tracks and is at or near the lead on all surfaces.

Honey Ryder was second to males in the United Nations Handicap here. Last year she was third in this event, just 2 1/2 lengths off the winner. The six-year- old is 9-2 in the program.

The top European horse is the 4-1 second choice Passage of Time. The three- year-old filly has only one win in three starts this year. In 2006 she won three of four starts.

The Breeders' Cup Mile has a full field of 14 for the turf event. The 3-1 morning-line favorite is Excellent Art from Europe. After Market, based in California, is the 7-2 second choice and England's Jeremy is the 5-1 third pick.

However, the two intriguing horses are Kip Deville and Nobiz Like Shobiz. Kip Deville, 6-1 in the morning-line, began the year with two staight stakes wins. He has lost his last four starts, but was a solid second to the now retired Shakespeare in the Woodbine Mile.

Nobiz Like Shobiz is 8-1 in the program and is on a three race win streak. His last three starts have all been on the grass, but this will be his first effort against older horses.

The winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf is usually the Eclipse Award winner for turf runners. Only eight have entered for the 1 1/2 mile race. Defending race winner Red Rocks is 7-2 in the morning-line and 2006 runner-up Better Talk Now is 9-2. Better Talk Now won the Turf in 2004.

Leading European horse Dylan Thomas is the 7-5 favorite. He can become the first Arc de Triomphe champ to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. To his inside will be English Channel, third in last year's Turf. English Channel is coming off a win in the Turf Classic at Belmont Park. He was second in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga after winning Monmouth's United Nations Handicap for the second time.

Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches is sidelined with an injury, which takes away a little of the luster for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. The $2 million race has a field of 12 females.

Indian Vale is the 3-1 favorite, though she hasn't won since June. She has lost twice to Unbridled Belle, the 9-2 third choice, this year. Most recently, Unbridled Belle defeated Indian Vale by a head in the Beldame at Belmont Park. Unbridled Bell won the Delaware Handicap in July when Indian Vale finished fifth.

The 7-2 second pick, Ginger Punch, was third in the Beldame after posting three straight wins. Highly rated three-year-olds Bear Now, Octave, Lady Joanne and Lear's Princess are all entered.

Two runners have wins at Monmouth Park this year. Prop Me Up, 50-1, won the Lady's Secret Stakes and is on a three race win streak. Hysterical Lady, 8-1, captured Monmouth's top race for females, the Molly Pitcher. She is a speed horse who has hit the board in all seven starts this year.

Completing the Breeders' Cup weekend is the 1 1/4 mile Classic. The winner will no doubt be voted Horse of the Year for 2007. Nine have been entered with each horse a solid choice to win.

Included in the field are Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Preakness champ Curlin and Santa Anita derby winner Tiago. Two other three-year-olds are Kentucky Cup Classic winner Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday who won the Haskell at Monmouth.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite is leading handicap horse Lawyer Ron. He set a record this summer in winning the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga.

The two longest shots are George Washington, 20-1, and at 30-1 Awesome Gem. George Washington was sixth in the 2006 Classic. Awesome Gem has been second in each of his last three starts, all in California.

The horse to look out for is 15-1 longshot Diamond Stripes. The four-year-old has been in the money all eight career starts. He won his first four races to begin his career. He then had three consecutive finishes in third place and is coming off a victory in the Meadowlands Cup earlier this month.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.

Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.