Cardinals hope to soar past Mountaineers in quest for Big East title

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2009 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Louisville Cardinals can clinch at least a share of the Big East Conference's regular season title tonight, as they square off against the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown.

The Cardinals enter the day locked in a first-place tie with top-ranked UConn, both teams sporting 15-2 league records. Louisville, though, lost to UConn during the season and would need a win and loss by the Huskies to claim the top seed in the upcoming league tournament. UConn battles Pittsburgh, which is still in the title mix at 14-3, earlier today so Louisville will know what is at stake prior to start of this game. The Cardinals soar into the contest on the wings of a six-game win streak that includes a 95-78 besting of Seton Hall on Wednesday. Now at 24-5 overall, UofL hits the road where it has gone a stellar 7-1 thus far.

West Virginia is a dangerous club that is trying to leave no doubt about a possible at-large NCAA Tournament bid. The Mountaineers have claimed victory in five of their last six outings, most recently routing DePaul on Wednesday, 82-63. At 10-7 in conference, WVU is currently tied with Syracuse and Providence for sixth place.

With regard to the all-time series between these two teams, Louisville holds a 6-2 advantage and it captured a 69-63 win in the first meeting this season.

The Cardinals shot 53.7 percent from the floor and connected on 10-of-24 three-point chances, as they raced past Seton Hall on Wednesday. Louisville won the battle on the boards, 44-33, and also handed out 22 assists as a team. Earl Clark led the charge with a double-double that consisted of a career-high 27 points and 14 rebounds. Terrence Williams also had a big night and nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 14 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists. On the season, Clark tops the roster in each scoring (13.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.0 rpg) and he is also distributing 3.2 apg. Williams is even more well rounded, and that is saying a lot, as he turns in 12.6 ppg 8.6 rpg, to go with team highs of 5.0 apg and 62 steals. Freshman Samardo Samuels rounds out the double-figure scorers, with 12.0 ppg.

The Mountaineers controlled the paint, outscoring DePaul by a 34-14 margin, and dominating the boards, 48-30, in an 82-63 rout on Wednesday. WVU also knocked down 45.7 percent of its attempts from the field and 10-of-22 from three-point distance. Alex Ruoff went 6-of-9 from behind the arc for 20 points, while Da'Sean Butler recorded a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Butler heads the Mountaineers in scoring this season with his 17.4 ppg and he is also pulling down 6.0 rpg. Ruoff has provided a nice complement to him and he checks in with 16.3 ppg on the strength of 37.9 percent shooting from three-point distance.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.