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07/12/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays will send three of their starting nine to the 81st MLB All-Star Game, after hitting a major-league leading 136 home runs in the first half.
Toronto's All-Star representatives of Vernon Wells, Jose Bautista and John Buck have combined to hit 56 of those homers, as the Jays sit in fourth place in the American League East with a 44-45 record. The three All-Stars are the most the Jays have sent to the Mid-Summer Classic since five were selected to take part in the 2006 All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. That event also featured Wells, who looks to be finally living up to the seven-year, $126 million contract former general manager J.P. Ricciardi inked him to in 2006.
Wells has not been running as much this season as in years past (four stolen bases, after swiping 17 in 2009), but the Gold Glove outfielder has provided stellar defense in addition to some pop in the middle of the lineup. The 31- year-old is on the verge of reaching 20 home runs, after doing so just once in the past three seasons, despite five-straight campaigns of 20 or more from 2002-2006. Wells will also be one of eight players taking part in the 2010 State Farm Home Run Derby on Monday night. Wells started off the year on a tear but has since seen his average dip to .265, to go along with 19 homers, 49 RBI and 46 extra-base hits, good for fourth most in the majors this season. Oddly enough, the center fielder is hitting just .186 against lefties, continuing a downward spiral from last season, when he hit a measly .206 against southpaws after hitting above .300 against lefthanders in four straight seasons.
Bautista, meanwhile, has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays this year, possessing skills that extend far beyond just pop in his bat. Heading into the break, Bautista carries in a major-league leading 24 home runs and his 54 walks are tied for tops in the AL with Oakland A's first basemen Daric Barton. Despite showing flashes of power throughout his career, dating back to his days with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bautista has already eclipsed his previous best of 16 home runs in 2006. Bautista has been on a home run tear since the end of last season, when he hit 10 of his 13 homers during his final 23 games. While Bautista's average remains a dismal .237, he continues to show strong plate discipline by piling on the walks and providing great defense wherever he plays (third base or right field). His seven outfield assists place him in a three- way tie for second among right fielders, despite playing just 57 games at the position.
Buck, the Blue Jays' starting catcher, earned the right to play in Anaheim by leading all AL catchers in RBI with 41 and ranking second in home runs with 13. The backstop is also sporting a respectable .272 batting average, which includes a whopping .400 average against lefties. The 30-year-old catcher is playing for his second big league organization after spending six years in Kansas City and is well on his way to surpassing career bests in home runs (18) and runs batted in (50). Like fellow teammate Bautista, this will be Buck's first All-Star Game appearance.
CANADIAN MADE
Joey Votto: With Votto down to his last lifeline in order to make the All- Star Game, the fans got it right and selected him as the last player to represent the National League on July 13th. Votto's .314-22-60 line has him in serious contention to make a run at the Triple Crown in the second half of the season. The 26-year-old Canadian will be making his first All-Star appearance and will be joining teammates Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes at the Mid-Summer Classic. The Cincinnati Reds were rewarded with four representatives for their strong play in the first half, as they hold the division lead in the National League Central.
Justin Morneau: The 29-year-old slugger suffered a mild concussion during a game against the Blue Jays last week, which will prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game festivities. Morneau's injury does not seem to be too serious, and the Minnesota Twins are likely taking a cautious approach to avoid a further setback. This was the first year Morneau had been selected as the AL starting first basemen and the fourth all-star appearance of his career. He remains one of the game's most consistent hitters and is batting .345, with 18 home runs and 56 RBI, placing him among the AL leaders in all three categories.
<< Montana's Wilson to play after murder acquittal
Missoula, MT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmy Wilson plans to rejoin the University of
Montana football team after the NCAA granted him another year of athletic
eligibility following his acquittal on murder charges.
Wilson was tried in Southern Cali
<< The 'wow' factor in horse racing
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This past Saturday had three stakes races
that were the equal of any last-second result in the more popular sports in
the world. The word 'wow' had to be shouted by anyone who watched the races as
they hap
<< This Week in Golf - July 12th through July 18th
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, The Old Course
at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland - The season's third major championship
is on deck and it's being contested at the home of golf, The Old Course at St.
Andrews
<< Canucks sign D O'Brien, three others
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks on Monday announced the
signing of defenseman Shane O'Brien.
O'Brien, 26, had two goals and six assists with a plus-15 rating in
65 games for the Canucks last season. He has
Knicks still have cap space, but future is now >>
GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) -Enough talk about the salary cap. The New York Knicks think they can win now.New York introduced new additions Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf on Monday. Not quite the same as showing off Le
Ducks sign LW Green >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks added some depth to the
forward position by signing left wing Josh Green to a one-year contract on
Monday.
The 32-year-old spent last season with Modo of the Swedish Elite League wh
Knicks officially sign PG Felton >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks made it official on Monday
by signing free agent guard Raymond Felton.
Terms of the contract were not disclosed, but the New York Daily News
previously reported its a three-year d
NCAA Tournament to begin with "First Four" games >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Division I Men's Basketball Committee
revealed its format for the newly expanded 68-team field in the NCAA
Tournament on Monday.
Beginning next March, eight teams will play early during th
American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies
It's that time of year folks. Betting on American Idol Season 9. And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below. With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.
No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.
Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.
A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.
Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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