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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After struggling badly during one of their most challenging stretches of the season, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim now find themselves faced with what could be a make-or-break three-game series with the Texas Rangers that begins this evening at Angel Stadium.
The three-time defending division champion Angels trailed the Rangers by five games for first place in the American League West when they entered a critical 12-game sequence against the New York Yankees, Texas and Boston on July 20. That deficit has since grown, as Anaheim has lost seven of the first nine tests of this portion of the schedule and enters tonight's showdown mired in a four-game losing streak.
With the Rangers defeating Oakland last night, Texas now holds a comfortable nine-game advantage on the third-place Angels in the division standings.
The Angels could have an even tougher climb after the team sustained a key injury prior to Wednesday's game with the Red Sox. Starting pitcher Joel Pineiro suffered a left oblique strain while warming up prior to the contest, and the 10-game winner is expected to be sidelined between six-to-eight weeks.
"Halfway through my warmup I threw a curveball and it felt like a cramp," said Pineiro. "Just a freak thing to happen, I can't explain it. It's really frustrating and when I heard how long I'll be out, my heart sunk to the ground."
With Pineiro unavailable, Boston completed a three-game series sweep with a 7-3 victory on Wednesday, with Marco Scutaro belting a tie-breaking grand slam off reliever Fernando Rodney in the top of the eighth inning.
Scot Shields made an emergency start in Pineiro's place and allowed a pair of runs in just 1 2/3 innings, but relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Rich Thompson combined for five frames of one-run ball to keep the Angels in the game. The Red Sox loaded the bases against Rodney (4-1) with none out in the eighth, however, and Scutaro smacked a 1-2 pitch just inside the left-field foul pole to break a 3-3 deadlock.
Reggie Willits went 2-for-3 with an RBI single for Anaheim, which had lost three of four bouts with the Rangers in Texas prior to the Boston series.
The Angels' lone victory in the Texas series came with Ervin Santana on the mound, and the hard-throwing right-hander will attempt to duplicate last Saturday's effort when he takes the ball this evening. The 2008 AL All-Star delivered eight excellent innings in Anaheim's 6-2 win that night, yielding solo homers to Michael Young and Nelson Cruz and just five hits total while striking out eight.
Santana also fired a seven-hit shutout against the Rangers last September in Anaheim and owns a 9-6 record in 17 career starts versus tonight's opponent, although he's registered a suspect 5.77 earned run average over the course of those games.
The native Dominican comes into tonight's clash having worked at least seven innings in four straight starts and has posted a 2.30 ERA during that solid stretch. Santana is just 1-2 over that span, however, as the Angels have scored two runs or less in three of the four games.
Santana may have to be on top of his game again tonight, with the Rangers slated to send out the still-unbeaten Tommy Hunter. The surprising young righty ran his season record to 8-0 in Sunday's 6-4 win over the Angels, a game in which he surrendered three runs on only three hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Hunter fired seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits in his previous start, an 8-0 besting of Detroit on July 20, and has registered an excellent 2.31 ERA in 10 games since joining the Texas rotation in early June. He's also the only pitcher in Rangers history to win his first eight decisions in a season.
The 24-year-old will be out to atone for one of the worst showings of his big league career when he toes the rubber tonight. Against the Angels in Anaheim last September, Hunter was tagged for seven runs (six earned) and seven hits before exiting after 2 1/3 innings of an 11-0 loss. In three lifetime starts versus the Halos, the Alabama product is 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA.
Texas extended its lead in the division by winning two of three tilts with second-place Oakland earlier in the week, including a 7-4 triumph in Thursday's rubber match. Michael Young went 4-for-4 with three runs scored to pace the Rangers' 14-hit attack, while teammate Josh Hamilton collected three hits to raise his AL-leading average to .362.
Taylor Teagarden added a two-run homer and David Murphy had a solo shot to help the Rangers record their 10th victory in their last 14 games. Ex-Angel Vladimir Guerrero also knocked in two runs on the evening.
Texas outfielder Nelson Cruz contributed an RBI single to Thursday's win and extended his hitting streak to 17 games. The standout slugger is batting .400 (28-for-70) with three homers and 17 RBI during his career-best tear.
The Rangers added another proven bat to their already-potent offense prior to last night's game, acquiring infielder Jorge Cantu from Florida in exchange for a pair of minor league pitchers. The 28-year-old, who hit .262 with 10 homers and 54 RBI for the Marlins this season, is expected to serve as Texas' primary first baseman.
Texas has prevailed in six of the nine previous meetings between these AL West rivals, but is just 2-5 in its last seven visits to Angel Stadium.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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